Dilemma: Hit or not

In one of my matches on Backgammon Galaxy I got into a position where I got it all wrong. I could hit a checker but there were also good alternatives. How do we break down this kind of problem and analyse the position?

Methodology

The main idea is to use the pyramid of understanding as I mention in an earlier post (Concepts for improving your game). The following steps are directly related to the way you would understand backgammon, if you followed the “pyramid of understanding”.

1. Consider the match score
2. Establish the game plans
3. Consider which concepts are at play
4. Consider the options and how they fit into the game plans
5. Consider any technical data (return shots, pipcount ect.) – in practice often done while going through 1 to 4 to support the findings.

Lets go through them step by step.

Match score

We are playing a 3-point match and the score is 0-0 (often written 0-0/3). The cube is centered.

A simple guidelines for playing a 3-point match at the score 0-0 is that you should

• double earlier than normal if there are few gammon chances
• play on without doubling earlier than normal if there are good gammon chances.

Game plans

Let’s have a look at the position.

Blue is working on a prime and has already established three points with more to follow soon. Blue is not strong in the blitzing potential with only 8 checkers in the zone. Usually you would need 10 checkers to be in a strong blitzing situation.

White is also trying to establish a prime and should White succeed White would have 10 or even 11 checkers in the zone for future blitzing plans if needed.

Concepts

Here are the concepts I believe are at play in the above position.

Blitz power: 8 checkers for a blitz are weak. 10 checkers are strong 12 checkers are very strong.

Race: If you are ahead in the race try to minimize the contact.

When in doubt, hit: If you have to choose between two candidate moves that feels like being equally good, choose the one with the hit.

Candidate moves

There are two candidate moves:

1. B/15*
2. B/21 13/7.

B/15* will remove a builder for a future prime and it will also weaken the future blitz potential for Blue. White is ahead in the race and even more by hitting. Unfortunately by hitting White created even more contact than before. On top of this White does not achieve anything in relation to his prime but leaves a blot on the 7-point and a lot of return shots.

B/21 13/7 does leave one more checker behind Blue’s emerging prime. Blue has only 8 checkers in the zone so only little blitzing potential for White to be afraid of. White is not yet under pressure. By not hitting, contact is minimized at least between the two candidate moves. Last but not least white will cover the blot on the 7-point and extend the prime. On top of this White adds another checker for a potential future blitz.

technical data

These were taken into consideration

• Blitz potential (checkers in the zone)
• Race (pips)
• Return shots.

CONCLUSION

Following the arguments above it is hard not to conclude that B/21 13/7 is by far the best move. This is also what the Artificial Intelligence shows in the post game analysis. Over the board I chose to go with B/15* because I did not spend the time needed to reach the correct conclusion. This mistake is considered a Blunder because the difference between the best move and my move was more than 0.080 points (0.086 in this case).

Good luck with your training. See you at the tables.